We suck at statistics. Statisticians suck at statistics. It’s been 50 years since Tversky/Kahnemann’s paper on the belief in the law of small numbers. 50 years. Another failure of statistical intuition, to not realize just how long we’ve been living with knowledge of these results. But why do we suck at statistical intuition? Seems like a poor adaptation, to draw incorrect and incomplete conclusions about the world. It’s likely easier to ask what is different about statistical problems that lead our finely tuned minds into error, where before (or otherwise) they have strong functional bases. More generally, under what circumstances…

The Pen Of Darkness

A novel insightful exercise to determine the pragmatic difference in intellectual payoff between a novel insight and an obvious fact mistaken for novel insight.

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